Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2013.10.009

Environmental Research

Volume 128, January 2014, Pages 15-26

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2013.10.009 Get rights and content

Highlights

•
Effective implementation of air quality policies would decline fine particles levels.
•
It was estimated a mean overall reduction in fine particles of 1 µg/m³ by 2014 in Spain.
•
A range from 2365 to 4163 all-cause deaths could be postponed annually in Spain.
•
Air quality control plans would lead to notable health-related benefits.

Abstract

Background

In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health.

Objectives

We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007.

Methods

To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16 km². In a second step, we used the concentration–response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005–2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures.

Results

Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1 µg/m³ by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%.

Conclusions

Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Introduction

The epidemiological literature has signaled that exposure to air pollution, especially fine particles of less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (hereinafter referred to as “fine particles”), can lead to cases of immediate (acute) or delayed (chronic) premature death, from cardiopulmonary diseases in particular (Pope and Dockery, 2006; Valavanidis et al., 2008). Epidemiological cohort studies, both in Europe (Beelen et al., 2008, Cesaroni et al., 2013) and in North America (Pope et al., 2002, Turner et al., 2011), have estimated the long-term health risk posed by exposure to air pollution. The Harvard Six Cities study reported a 14% increase in long-term all-cause mortality for every increase of 10 µg/m³ in fine particle concentration (Lepeule et al., 2012). This last study and other recent European cohort studies (Cesaroni et al., 2013, Raaschou-Nielsen et al., 2013a) have reported increases in long-term mortality even at fine particle levels below the ambient air quality standards.

Evidence from a growing body of epidemiological studies has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions (Fann et al., 2011). Assessments of interventions which improve air quality show that a decrease in fine particle levels is accompanied by substantial health benefits (van Erp et al., 2008). By way of example, the 1990 ban on the use of coal in Dublin (Ireland) led to a 70% reduction in monthly mean particle concentrations, and a 6%, 15% and 10% decrease in all-cause, respiratory and heart disease mortality rates, respectively (Clancy et al., 2002).

Health impact assessment makes it possible to quantify the effect that public policies may have on the health of the population (WHO, 2000). Quantitative risk assessment methods are useful in providing point estimates, or a range of estimates, for the health risks associated with a variety of hazards, including air pollution, and are often used in health-based policy making (O’Connell and Hurley, 2009). For health impact assessment purposes, air quality information must be linked to the population subject to the exposure. The application of air quality models helps to examine potential air quality impacts and related health effects associated with emissions, and develop country-wide health impact assessment, especially in study areas without air pollution monitoring data (Dhondt et al., 2012).

In Spain, the Air Pollution Risk Assessment System (Sistema de Evaluación de Riesgos por Contaminación Atmosférica – SERCA) research project pioneered a nation-wide health impact assessment of air pollution, based on a reduction in fine particle levels in 2011 vis-à-vis 2004, as a result of a series of air quality control measures. Although such policy measures are not necessarily focused on health, they could nonetheless have an indirect effect on health. This study estimated that 1718 annual deaths were attributable to an average annual reduction of 0.7 µg/m³ in fine particle levels in Spain (Boldo et al., 2011). The experience and knowledge acquired in this first stage of the project was used to undertake a new nation-wide health impact assessment, with more accurate estimates and a time horizon extended to 2014. This study now shows the impact of various air quality control measures on mortality, taking fine particle concentrations as an overall indicator of air pollution (WHO, 2006). In addition to total mortality, the study analyzes the impact of changes in fine particle levels on two of the leading principal causes of death in Spain (INE, 2013), namely, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer.

Section snippets

Materials and methods

Quantitative health impact assessment estimates were derived by linking together: (i) estimates of how proposed policies would affect population exposures; (ii) background mortality rates; and, (iii) concentration–response functions, typically expressed as percentage change in health effect per unit of exposure. This is an established approach when quantifying health impacts mediated by air pollution (O’Connell and Hurley, 2009).

Results

In Spain, the main sectors responsible for emissions of primary fine particles in 2007 and 2014 were road transport and other mobile sources, machinery, non-industrial combustion plants, and combustion in the energy, transformation, and manufacturing industries. The combination of all these accounted for 94% of emissions of this pollutant in 2007. Among these sectors, note should be taken of transport (both road and off-road) with 58% of total fine particle emissions in 2007. By implementing

Discussion

This study reports the mortality impact in Spain expected in 2014, resulting from a mean reduction of 1 µg/m³ in fine particle concentrations. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. For each

Conclusions

In conclusion, air pollution constitutes one of the most significant environmental health risks and gives rise to both acute and chronic effects. In view of the fact that exposure to air pollution is a modifiable risk and that, to a great extent, this remains outside the control of the individual, public authorities must assume responsibility for adopting air quality control measures based on available scientific evidence. Compliance with European Directive guideline values should not only be a

Funding sources

This study was funded by a grant from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment (058/PC08/3-18.1).

Acknowledgments

Mortality data were supplied by the Spanish National Statistics Institute under a specific confidentiality protocol. The research findings are the responsibility of the authors.

References (57)

A. Arruti et al.
Impact of the global economic crisis on metal levels in particulate matter (PM) at an urban area in the Cantabria Region (Northern Spain)
Environ. Pollut.
(2011)
E. Boldo et al.
Health impact assessment of a reduction in ambient PM(2.5) levels in Spain
Environ. Int.
(2011)
R. Borge et al.
Development of a high-resolution emission inventory for Spain using the SMOKE modeling system: a case study for the years 2000 and 2010
Environ. Modeling Software
(2008)
A. Cabanes et al.
Cancer mortality trends in Spain: 1980–2007
Ann. Oncol.
(2010)
L. Clancy et al.
Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study
Lancet
(2002)
S. Dhondt et al.
Health impact assessment of air pollution using a dynamic exposure profile: Implications for exposure and health impact estimates
Environ. Impact. Assess. Rev.
(2012)
J. Lumbreras et al.
A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain
Atmos. Environ.
(2008)
E. O’Connell et al.
A review of the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative methods used in health impact assessment
Public Health
(2009)
M. Pascal et al.
Assessing the public health impacts of urban air pollution in 25 European cities: results of the Aphekom project
Sci. Total Environ.
(2013)
L. Perez et al.
Estimating the health and economic benefits associated with reducing air pollution in the Barcelona metropolitan area (Spain)
Gac. Sanit.
(2009)

N. Pérez et al.

Partitioning of major and trace components in PM10-PM2.5_PM1 at an urban site in Southern Europe

Atmos. Environ.

(2008)

O. Raaschou-Nielsen et al.

Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)

Lancet Oncol.

(2013)

Abt Associates Inc. 2010a. BenMAP. User's Manual. Appendices. Prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and...

Abt Associates Inc. 2010b. BenMAP. User's manual. Prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US EPA....

Z.J. Andersen et al.

Diabetes incidence and long-term exposure to air pollution: a cohort study

Diabetes Care

(2012)

S.C. Anenberg et al.

An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling

Environ. Health Perspect.

(2010)

F. Ballester et al.

Reducing ambient levels of fine particulates could substantially improve health: a mortality impact assessment for 26 European cities

J. Epidemiol. Community Health

(2008)

R. Beelen et al.

Long-term effects of traffic-related air pollution on mortality in a Dutch cohort (NLCS-AIR study)

Environ. Health Perspect.

(2008)

V. Bertomeu et al.

Situación de la enfermedad cardiovascular en España. Del riesgo a la enfermedad

Rev. Esp. Cardiol.

(2008)

K. Bhaskaran et al.

Cardiovascular consequences of air pollution: what are the mechanisms?

Heart

(2011)

R.D. Brook et al.

Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association

Circulation

(2010)

B. Brunekreef et al.

Effects of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution on respiratory and cardiovascular mortality in the Netherlands: the NLCS-AIR study

Res. Rep. Health Eff. Inst.

(2009)

D. Byun et al.

Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the models-3 community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system

Appl. Mech. Rev.

(2006)

D. Byun et al.

Science algorithms of the EPA models-3 community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system [microform]

G. Cesaroni et al.

Long-term exposure to urban air pollution and mortality in a cohort of more than a million adults in Rome

Environ. Health Perspect.

(2013)

D.L. Crouse et al.

Risk of non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality in relation to long-term exposure to low concentrations of fine particulate matter: a Canadian National-level cohort study

Environ. Health Perspect.

(2012)

M. Cusack et al.

Trends of particulate matter (PM2.5) and chemical composition at a regional background site in the Western Mediterranean over the last nine years (2002–2010)

Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.

(2012)

Eurostat, 2013. Europe indicators. Online at: 〈http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/〉. (accessed...

Cited by (57)

Reductions in NO<inf>2</inf> and emergency room visits associated with California's goods movement policies: A quasi-experimental study
2022, Environmental Research
This study examines whether the “Emission Reduction Plan for Ports and Goods Movement” in California reduced air pollution exposures and emergency room visits among California Medicaid enrollees with asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
We created a retrospective cohort of 5608 Medicaid enrollees from ten counties in California with data from 2004 to 2010. We grouped the patients into two groups: those living within 500 m of goods movement corridors (ports and truck-permitted freeways), and control areas (away from the busy truck or car permitted highways). We created annual air pollution surfaces for nitrogen dioxide and assigned them to enrollees’ home addresses. We used a quasi-experimental design with a difference-in-differences method to examine changes before and after the policy for cohort beneficiaries in the two groups.
The reductions in nitrogen dioxide exposures and emergency room visits were greater for enrollees in goods movement corridors than those in control areas in post-policy years. We found that the goods movement actions were associated with 14.8% (95% CI, −24.0% to −4.4%; P = 0.006) and 11.8% (95% CI, −21.2% to −1.2%; P = 0.030) greater reduction in emergency room visits for the beneficiaries with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respectively, in the third year after California's emission reduction plan.
These findings indicate remarkable health benefits via reduced emergency room visits from the significantly improved air quality due to public policy interventions for disadvantaged and susceptible populations.
Estimates of population exposure to atmospheric pollution and health-related externalities in a real city: The impact of spatial resolution on the accuracy of results
2022, Science of the Total Environment
Health impacts of atmospheric pollution is an important issue in urban environments. Its magnitude depends on population exposure which have been frequently estimated by considering different approaches relating pollutant concentration and population exposed to it. However, the uncertainties due to the spatial resolution of the model used to estimate the pollutant concentration or due to the lack of representativeness of urban air quality monitoring station (AQMS) have not been evaluated in detail. In this context, NO₂ annual average concentration at pedestrian level in the whole city of Pamplona (Spain) modelled at high spatial resolution (~1 m) by Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations is used to estimate the total population exposure and health-related externalities by using different approaches. Air pollutant concentration and population are aggregated at different spatial resolutions ranging from a horizontal grid cell size of 100 m × 100 m to a coarser resolution where the whole city is covered by only one cell (6 km × 5 km). In addition, concentrations at AQMS locations are also extracted to assess the representativeness of those AQMS. The case with a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m for both pollutant-concentration distribution and population data is used as a reference (Base case) and compared with those obtained with the other approaches. This study indicates that the spatial resolution of concentration and population distribution in the city should be 1 km × 1 km or finer to obtain appropriate estimates of total population exposure (underestimations <13%) and health-related externalities (underestimations <37%). For the cases with coarser resolutions, a strong underestimation of total population exposure (>31%) and health-related externalities (>76%) was found. On the other hand, the use of AQMS concentrations can induce important errors due to the limited spatial representativeness, in particular in terms of population exposure.
Spatially-structured human mortality modelling using air pollutants with a compositional approach
2022, Science of the Total Environment
Citation Excerpt :
The regression coefficients inverse-transformed were the same for each county. Interestingly, the coefficient related to PM2.5 has the most important influence (0.67) over the mortality data modelling; this result has been widely studied in Spain by Boldo et al. (2014). The number of human deaths in Spain increased with the age-group level, as shown in Fig. 5.
The human mortality models with a demographic approach are performed in function of time. The addition of information (social, economic, and environmental) in the structure of demographic models allows fitting observed values better. Air pollution influences human mortality and could be used as an environmental covariate in the demographic models. The levels of air pollutants describe quantitatively the parts of a whole (air), called composition, and their statistical treatment should consider this characteristic in the modelling process. This article evaluated the association between human mortality data with levels of air pollutants as a composition using a spatially-structured model. The spatially-structured modelling approach in the human mortality data captures the spatial heterogeneity of air pollutant concentrations (local environmental conditions). Human mortality data is defined as the number of deaths, and in this work, it was analyzed with both total and disaggregated presentation. The disaggregation was by (i) sex and (ii) sex and age-group. A likelihood ratio test suggested the model with air pollutants as covariates treated under a compositional approach (proposed model) is more appropriate than the model based only on time explanatory variable in yearly basis. The proposed model was evaluated in 48 counties in Spain, each with its mortality and air pollution dataset. The modelling approach in this work presented adequate quality model indexes and could be applied to make short-term predictions with different air pollution scenarios.
Effects of deployment of electric vehicles on air quality in the urban area of Turin (Italy)
2021, Journal of Environmental Management
This study aims to evaluate and quantify the environmental, health, and economic benefits due to the penetration of electric vehicles in the fleet composition by replacing conventional vehicles in an urban area.
This study has been performed for the city of Turin, where road transport represents one of the main primary emission sources. Air pollution data were evaluated by ADMS-Roads, the flow traffic data used for simulation come from a real-time monitoring. Instead, statistics on mortality and hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected from the regional health information system and the National Health Institute and implemented in the BenMap software to evaluate the health and economic impacts. In both cases, two scenarios to evaluate the annual benefits of reducing PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and NO₂ were used: reduction to the levels gained by the assumptions of 2025 and 2030 Scenario and the PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and NO₂ concentrations were considered for evaluating short-term and long-term effects. The analysis performed doesn't include background pollution levels, i.e. the concentrations percentage reductions are only related to the local contribution, therefore derived from the contribution only of traffic source. The results show that fleet electrification has a potential benefit for concentrations reduction in comparison to the base Scenario, especially related to NO₂, less for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5. Regarding 2025 Scenario (4 % (passenger car) and 5 % (light-duty vehicles) electric vehicles), reductions of 52 % of NO2, 35 % of PM10 and 49 % of PM2.5 are observed. Meanwhile, as regards 2030 Scenario reductions of 87 % of NO2, 36 % of PM10 and 50 % of PM2.5 are reached. Also, in terms of social costs a decrease of 47 % for the 2025 Scenario and 66 % for the 2030 Scenario in comparison to the base Scenario is arise.
Linking air quality, health, and economic effect models for use in air pollution epidemiology studies with uncertain factors
2021, Atmospheric Pollution Research
Citation Excerpt :
There are different chemical transport models that could be used in this kind of studies, as for example the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) (Binkowski and Shankar, 1995; Jun and Stein, 2004; Byun and Schere, 2006; Holmes et al., 2014; Mai et al., 2016; Abel et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2019), Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (Pepe et al., 2016), and Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry (Grell et al., 2005) were developed to assess transmission and associated metabolism (de Almeida Albuquerque et al., 2012; Vara-Vela et al., 2016). In recent years, the application of models to determine regional public health impacts has received special attention (Boldo et al., 2014; Russell et al., 2014; Ding et al., 2016; Li et al., 2019). In this context, air quality modelling, particularly for PM10 and PM2.5, is of interest because of the connection of PM to people's health.
Epidemiological studies have shown that premature mortality, hospital admission, and outpatient visits are closely related to particulate matter (PM) pollution. The modelling of air quality, assessment of human health impact, and estimation of health impact models are useful tools for assessing the impact of air pollution on health. This study proposes a model framework for assessing air pollution damage, including air quality simulation for PM₁₀, assessment of human health impacts, and estimation of health impact models that meet the requirements of actual monitoring data. The novel contribution of this study is a proposal for the application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) model and the epidemiological coefficient β of concentration–response functions (CRFs), which were determined from epidemiological studies and selected in accordance with the study area conditions under limited conditions related to the field measurement data, to calculate the health impacts and economic losses caused by PM₁₀. Calculation results for a typical month in 2017 showed that economic losses were approximately 125.119 million Vietnamese Dong (95% CI: −26.841, 272.633), in which the highest number of mortality and morbidity due to PM₁₀ dust pollution exposure was identified on October 24, 2017. The WRF/CMAQ simulation results were calibrated and validated to improve the efficiency of the estimation. These validated results were mainly based on the measured data, which played a significant role in enhancing the accuracy of the quantification of air pollution effects.
Estimates of pedestrian exposure to atmospheric pollution using high-resolution modelling in a real traffic hot-spot
2021, Science of the Total Environment
Citation Excerpt :
For example, when mesoscale Chemical-Transport Models (CTM) are used, the grid resolution can range from 1 km to several tens of km, which is usually a better spatial resolution than the one obtained interpolating only air quality monitors, particularly, in urban environments because of the small spatial representativeness of urban AQMS. These pollutant concentration maps can be combined with population data (such as population density) with a similar spatial resolution to carry out health impact assessment studies (Boldo et al., 2014; Izquierdo et al., 2020). However, in urban areas, the spatial variability of air pollutant concentration is very strong as a result of the complex air flows due to the buildings or other obstacles.
Atmospheric pollution is a very relevant risk for the human health, in particular in urban environments, where most people lives and high levels of pollution are found. Population exposure is traditionally estimated through concentration recorded at air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) or modelled at a spatial resolution of the order of 1 km². However, these methodologies have limitations in urban areas where strong gradients of concentration, even in the same street, exist. In addition, the movements of pedestrians make difficult to compute reliable estimates of pollutant concentration to which people are exposed to. In this context, the main objective of this study is to estimate the exposure of pedestrians to ambient nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentrations with high spatial resolution in a real urban traffic hot-spot under different methodologies. To achieve this objective, a novel methodology which combines high-resolution NOx concentrations from computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with the pedestrian flows obtained by pedestrian mobility microsimulations is applied to an urban area of Madrid, Spain. High-resolution maps show pedestrian exposure peaks, at bus stops and crosswalks, that cannot be captured by the simpler methods based on spatial average concentration (SAC) or concentration measured in an AQMS. Total daily exposure obtained is 1.19 · 10⁹ person s μg m⁻³, while SAC and AQMS concentration methods yielded 9–23% and 30–40% lower values. In conclusion, the proposed methodology allows to determine the areas with higher exposure in order to design local strategies to reduce the impact on human health. In addition, from a more general point of view, the total exposure in the studied area is better estimated by using spatial average concentration than through concentration recorded by AQMS. The assessment of the spatial representative of AQMS becomes necessary to use AQMS concentration to evaluate air quality and population exposure of an urban area.

View all citing articles on Scopus

View full text

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Highlights

Abstract

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Introduction

Section snippets

Materials and methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusions

Funding sources

Acknowledgments

Environ. Pollut.

Environ. Int.

Environ. Modeling Software

Ann. Oncol.

Lancet

Environ. Impact. Assess. Rev.

Atmos. Environ.

Public Health

Sci. Total Environ.

Gac. Sanit.

Atmos. Environ.

Lancet Oncol.

Diabetes incidence and long-term exposure to air pollution: a cohort study

Diabetes Care

An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling

Environ. Health Perspect.

Reducing ambient levels of fine particulates could substantially improve health: a mortality impact assessment for 26 European cities

J. Epidemiol. Community Health

Long-term effects of traffic-related air pollution on mortality in a Dutch cohort (NLCS-AIR study)

Environ. Health Perspect.

Situación de la enfermedad cardiovascular en España. Del riesgo a la enfermedad

Rev. Esp. Cardiol.

Cardiovascular consequences of air pollution: what are the mechanisms?

Heart

Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association

Circulation

Effects of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution on respiratory and cardiovascular mortality in the Netherlands: the NLCS-AIR study

Res. Rep. Health Eff. Inst.

Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the models-3 community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system

Appl. Mech. Rev.

Science algorithms of the EPA models-3 community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system [microform]

Long-term exposure to urban air pollution and mortality in a cohort of more than a million adults in Rome

Environ. Health Perspect.

Risk of non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality in relation to long-term exposure to low concentrations of fine particulate matter: a Canadian National-level cohort study

Environ. Health Perspect.

Trends of particulate matter (PM2.5) and chemical composition at a regional background site in the Western Mediterranean over the last nine years (2002–2010)

Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.